LISTEN TO THE FULL INTERVIEW | WFIR Political Analyst Chapman Rackaway breaks down the referendum results, what happens next, and why the courts may have the final say.
Virginia voters narrowly approved a controversial redistricting referendum Tuesday night by a 51-to-49 margin, temporarily suspending the state’s nonpartisan redistricting commission and handing mapmaking power back to the Democratic-controlled General Assembly.
The measure creates a new congressional map with 10 Democratic-leaning districts and one Republican-leaning district — a dramatic shift from the current six-to-five Democratic edge. But three pending lawsuits challenging the referendum’s legality mean the fight over Virginia’s congressional lines is far from over.
Radford University Political Science Chair Chapman Rackaway said the new map represents an extreme form of partisan redistricting, even if Virginia voters signed off on it.
“What it does is suspend temporarily, according to the text of the referendum, the statewide nonpartisan redistricting commission in favor of what I think we can accurately say is one of the most gerrymandered maps that I had ever seen,” Rackaway said. “This is in response to what’s going on in several other states.”
The referendum passed with just over 70,000 votes separating the two sides — a margin of 1.7 percentage points that highlights Virginia’s political divisions.
Regional split reflects urban-rural divide
Roanoke City backed the redistricting change with 61% support, but Roanoke County, Bedford, Botetourt, Franklin and Floyd counties all voted against it by wide margins.
Northern Virginia’s strong support for the measure proved decisive, though Rackaway cautioned against oversimplifying the results as urban interests overpowering rural voters.
“Northern Virginia interests edged out the rest of the state, really,” Rackaway said. “But I would be careful about how much we attribute to this being the urban interests kind of hustling their way past the rural interests, because rural voters came out in big, big numbers.”
The close margin — combined with high turnout — signals a deeply divided electorate heading into the 2026 midterm elections.
Legal challenges may override voter approval
Three lawsuits are challenging the referendum on procedural grounds, with the central question being whether lawmakers followed proper procedures by pushing the measure through a special legislative session rather than a regular one.
Rackaway said the procedural challenge represents the strongest legal argument against the new map — and could nullify Tuesday’s vote regardless of the outcome.
“If I’m a court watcher, that’s where I’m paying the most attention,” Rackaway said. “I want to see their deliberations, what kind of questions are they asking, because that could determine whether this happens or not. Yes, the people have spoken, but if the people have spoken in a way that was rigged to push things one way or another — which is what the court may say — then you have a very different situation in more ways than one.”
A ruling on the lawsuits is expected in the coming weeks. Until then, election officials are moving forward with preparations under the new district lines.
What the new map means for Virginia
If the new map survives legal challenges, it would give Democrats a significant structural advantage in Virginia’s congressional delegation ahead of the 2026 midterms. The redistricting push is part of a broader national battle between Democrats and Republicans to control the U.S. House of Representatives.
But Rackaway emphasized that a 10-to-one map does not guarantee 10 Democratic seats. Competitive races in several newly drawn districts could still produce Republican victories.
“This is not something where we’re guaranteed 10 Democrats and one Republican,” Rackaway said. “They still have to run the races, and some of the new redistricting plans have some thinner margins. So it’s entirely possible that a Republican could run a really good campaign, punch above their weight class, and still win.”
Rackaway put the GOP’s realistic ceiling at three or four wins in competitive districts, with a best-case scenario of a seven-to-four or eight-to-three split and a worst-case scenario of 10-to-one.
Voter approval adds legitimacy — but questions remain
Despite the legal uncertainty, Rackaway said the fact that Virginia voters approved the map sets it apart from partisan redistricting efforts in other states that never went to a public vote.
“If it survives the court challenges and goes forward, I think they will say that we have the most legitimate form of this gerrymandering — which, I guess, is like being the most ethical crook out there,” Rackaway said.
The referendum was designed to help Democrats counter Republican redistricting efforts in other states and position the party to potentially reclaim control of the U.S. House in 2026. Control of Congress could determine whether President Trump has legislative allies or faces a Democratic majority attempting to block his agenda.
What happens next
Courts will now review the three pending lawsuits challenging the referendum. Judges are expected to focus on whether lawmakers followed proper procedures in placing the measure on the ballot during a special session rather than a regular legislative session.
If the courts uphold the referendum, the new congressional map will take effect for the 2026 midterm elections. If judges rule the process was flawed, the new 10-to-one map could be thrown out regardless of Tuesday’s vote.
For now, the close margin and pending legal challenges leave Virginia’s congressional future uncertain — even as both parties prepare for what could be one of the most consequential midterm elections in recent history.
Rackaway said the referendum’s narrow passage reflects a broader national trend heading into 2026.
“This election — its turnout and its margin — tells us we are a very evenly divided nation,” Rackaway said. “And in districts that are close, it can really be a toss-up. So once again, mobilization, getting the right message out there, getting your people excited about the election and getting them to turn out is going to be absolutely vital.”
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