LISTEN: Virginia August primary raises turnout concerns as summer voting begins
Virginia voters can begin casting ballots next month for an August primary that political analysts say could see historically low turnout due to its timing during summer vacation season.
Early voting starts June 18 for the Aug. 4 primary, which will decide which candidates advance to November’s congressional elections. The races follow the Virginia Supreme Court’s ruling that current congressional maps will remain in place for this year’s elections, though legal action still sits before the U.S. Supreme Court.
Chapman Rackaway, WFIR political analyst and chair of political science at Radford University, says the recent redistricting referendum is not a good comparison for normal primary turnout outside November elections.
“When we’re thinking about turnout, we normally think about it in more general election terms,” Rackaway said. “In a midterm, you might be thinking of a target of 35, 40% voter turnout, right? But this is a primary. Our primaries tend to be somewhere between 7 and 10%. The redistricting referendum was a huge anomaly. We’ve never seen off-cycle election turnout that high.”
Summer timing may drive down participation
The Aug. 4 primary falls during peak vacation season, and Rackaway says that timing could suppress voter participation beyond typical primary levels.
“We’re talking about really at the primary turnout in August here,” he said. “I think that it will have a suppressive effect. But you might be talking about the difference between a 7 and a half percent and a 4% voter turnout rate in August primaries.”
The lower expected turnout means a smaller, potentially less representative slice of voters will determine which candidates appear on the November ballot. Primary voters tend to be more engaged party members whose views may not reflect the broader electorate.
Registration deadline approaches
Virginia has open primaries, so voters do not register by party before taking part. Any registered voter can participate in either party’s primary, though not both.
The registration deadline is July 24 for the August primary. Voters can register online through the official website by clicking HERE.
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